Saut Sagala1,2, Rahastuti Tiara Adysti², Muhammad Asa², Kharis Aulia Alam², Naufal Hilmy Pratama², Salma Lathifah²
¹Center for Research on Disaster Mitigation, Bandung Institute of Technology; ²Resilience Development Initiative
Corresponding Author: tiara.adysti@rdi.or.id
A series of wildfires ignited in early January 2025 have profoundly impacted Southern California. Exacerbated by Santa Ana winds and prolonged drought, the fires scorched over 40,000 acres, destroyed at least 12,000 structures, and caused 25 fatalities (1). On January 14, six million people in the Greater Los Angeles Area were continuously under critical fire threat, with almost 100,000 of them being subject to evacuation orders (2–4). Economic losses are estimated at $250 billion, emphasising the urgent need for improved wildfire management amid climate change (5).
Unveiling the Devastating Facts of Los Angeles Wildfires
The California devastating wildfires started with the detected Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire in Los Angeles on January 7, 2025, and spread quickly due to the powerful Santa Ana winds, which occur numerous times throughout the year, usually during the cooler months (from late September to May).
Detected fire spots in Los Angeles and the total burned areas
Source: CAL Fire (Accessed on January 17th) (1)
Visualisation of LA Fires burned area
Source: CAL Fire (Accessed on January 17th) (1)
After burning for over a week, the fire has yet to be tamed. By January 17th, the accumulated burned area reached ~40,696 acres (164.69 km2), equivalent to about 24.8% area of Jakarta, 10.4% area of Greater London, or 6.1 times the size of Sydney. During this period, the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire inflicted the most catastrophic damage, amounting to around 93% of the burned area*, 89% of the damaged and destroyed structures*, and 100% of fatalities*.
Damage Assessment of the Palisades Fire*
Source: CAL Fire (Accessed on January 17th) (1)
*field damage inspection is ongoing and subject to change
Damage Assessment of the Eaton Fire*
Source: CAL Fire (Accessed on January 17th) (1)
*field damage inspection is ongoing and subject to change
A Growing Concern of the Winter Wildfires
Wildfires are typically rare in January, with a total burned area of approximately 5,000 acres across all Januaries from 2013 to 2024. However, January 2025 experienced an unprecedented surge, with more than 40,000 acres burned, eight times the total burned area for the entire month of January over the preceding decade.
The total burned area from 2023 to January 2025 (upper panel) and total burned area by month from 2013 to 2024 (lower panel) of historical wildfire events in California (1)
Source: CAL Fire (Accessed on January 17th)
The temperature and precipitation anomalies for three months prior to the wildfires event (October–December 2024), relative to the previous decades (1991–2020), show an increase in temperature (over 1 ℃) and a significant reduction in precipitation (up to 100% decrease) in the wildfire-affected areas. A warming trend is evident in the wildfire locations (indicated by blue/red cross points) along with the significant reduction in rainfall, which may have exacerbated dry conditions and contributed to the intensity of the fires.
Temperature (left panel) and precipitation (right panel) anomalies in October–December 2024 relative to October–December in 1991–2020 according to NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid) with the fire spots (blue/red cross points) (6).
Climate change increases wildfire by amplifying its principal driving factor: heat. The rising temperatures associated with climate change dries out vegetation, thereby accelerating the ignition and spread of fires. Beyond Los Angeles, wildfires in other regions are expected to burn significantly wider areas compared to the past, with projections indicating an increase of 35% (at 2°C warming) to 40% (at 4°C warming) in global land (7). Furthermore, it is also projected that most areas in the United States will likely experience longer fire seasons in the future.
Future (2070–2099) minus present (1996–2016) potential fire season length difference in months (color grid) in the RCP8.5 scenario and the wildfires spots (orange cross points) (8)
The Cascading Multi-hazard Threats
The impact of wildfires extends far beyond their immediate containment. The vast expanse of scorched land, often a critical habitat for wildlife, can lead to long-lasting ecological disruptions (9). Additionally, the destruction of vegetation across Los Angeles' varied terrain significantly heightens the risk of soil erosion, thereby increasing the potential for landslides in the region (10,11). Not to mention the impact it would have on the air quality for quite some time, putting people's health at risk for a longer stretch of time.
Navigating the Future Preparedness
The rare wildfires in January 2025 highlight the importance of understanding the potential ‘new normal’ for multi-hazard risks in the context of climate change. As Southern California remains susceptible to wildfires due to its unique combination of weather, topography, vegetation, and wind patterns, the changing climate may exacerbate these risks (12). This emphasises the need for proactive risk assessment and adaptive strategies for minimising the impacts.
As wildfires pose a significant threat to California and the broader United States, vegetation management, specifically reducing fuel sources such as shrubs and logs, may become a key mitigation strategy. California’s Wildfire and Forest Resilience Action Plan advocates for prescribed burns, a controlled fire management technique that has proven effective in countries such as Indonesia and Australia, as demonstrated by the 2017 Thomas Fire (13,14). Additionally, cloud seeding programmes, which aim to enhance precipitation, are operational in several states, although their impact on soil moisture and fire hotspots remains under-researched (15).
Beyond mitigation efforts, forest rehabilitation and conservation are essential in reducing land degradation and restoring ecosystems. Actions such as soil stabilisation, vegetation restoration, and the enhancement of water cycles address both the immediate impacts of wildfires and strengthen resilience against future fires (16). To ensure long-term recovery, it is critical to pay attention to climate-resilient seedlings (17). However, without effective fire prevention measures, rehabilitated areas remain vulnerable to recurring wildfires, potentially disrupting recovery and undermining restoration efforts (18).
Furthermore, research indicates that building construction materials are crucial for wildfire resilience in Southern California, often outweighing factors such as vegetation buffers (19). In response to wildfire risks, Los Angeles implemented a ban on wood roofs in 1989 and mandated fire-resistant roofs and siding for new constructions in 2008 (20,21). However, most housing predates these regulations. While some counties offer retrofitting grants, recent wildfire events highlight the need for broader initiatives to enhance wildfire protections (22). This urgency is evident in the severely impacted areas of Pacific Palisades and Altadena, located within California's wildfire-urban interface, where residentials and other man-made structures intersect with wildland vegetation (23,24). Between 1990 and 2020, nearly 45% of the homes in California were constructed in these high-risk zones, influenced by strict zoning laws in Los Angeles, where approximately 80% of the city is exclusively zoned for single-family homes, pushing residents toward suburban areas, which are more vulnerable to wildfire (23,25).
Behind these devastating losses, lies an opportunity to build back better by prioritising fire-resilient materials and designs, as well as accelerating retrofitting efforts. The government should also focus on promoting housing development in lower-risk areas by revising city-wide zoning laws and discouraging suburban development, thereby reducing demands for houses within the wildfire-urban interface.
As climate change intensifies extreme disaster events, anticipatory action must be a top priority. The Palisades Fire, which was so extensive that even early warnings were insufficient–despite the use of ALERTCalifornia, an AI-powered system developed at UC San Diego for over 20 years (26), demonstrated the urgent need for improved response capabilities. Nevertheless, investment in early warning systems remains vital as climate change worsens the fire risks. Effective systems, emphasising reaction capabilities, communication, monitoring, and risk understanding, can mitigate significant losses, particularly through community-based approaches (27).
Community-based Early Warning System (CBEWS) components (27)
In conclusion, California’s wildfire crisis has been recalling the complex challenges posed by climate-induced hazards and the lessons for resilience planning. Addressing the potential for greater risks requires collective initiatives among stakeholders. As the future may become highly uncertain, preparedness becomes important to ensure we can adapt and protect lives and ecosystems from cascading disasters.
Acknowledgement:
This study was conducted by the Multi-hazard Preparedness and Resilient Infrastructure Working Group, with support from the Knowledge and Academic Unit of the Resilience Development Initiative (RDI).
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