From 1999 to 2009, Indonesia’s middle class experienced rapid expansion due to economic modernisation, which is crucial in driving economic growth and mitigating inequality through taxes and business creation. However, recent data indicates a concerning trend: a decline in the middle-class population alongside a rise in the Aspiring Middle Class (AMC) and vulnerable groups from 2018 to 2024. By 2024, only 17.13% of Indonesians are projected to belong to the middle-income class, with 49% still facing vulnerabilities that could lead to a significant risk of slipping into the low-income bracket. This decline has had an impact on national purchasing power, which has decreased. A lecturer from the Faculty of Economics and Business, the University of Indonesia, Mr Chatib, in his article “Kelas Menengah: Dari Zona Nyaman ke Zona Makan”, points out the main drivers are a lack of social protection that focuses on the middle class and a lack of labour-intensive jobs available. Recent studies suggest that enhancing human capital, especially in education and skills needed for labour, could be a key factor in reducing this vulnerability and stabilising the welfare state of the middle-income group.

COVID-19 revealed critical vulnerabilities within Indonesia’s healthcare system, exacerbated by its geographic dispersion, healthcare inequities, and resource limitations. Despite implementing public health measures, repurposing facilities, and expanding vaccination efforts, the country faced challenges, including under-reported cases, shortages of healthcare workers, and poor coordination among stakeholders. These issues highlighted the need for systemic improvements, particularly in rural areas. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure, increasing medical staffing, enhancing governance, and fostering partnerships are essential takeaways for future pandemic preparedness and a more resilient healthcare system.

Adequate social protection for internally displaced persons (IDPs) requires a comprehensive assessment of their multidimensional vulnerabilities to better inform the programme design. In the case of IDPs in Papua, the current approach has been deemed ineffective due to its insensitive nature and lack of responsiveness to the vulnerabilities faced by IDPs. Five key dimensions of vulnerability—economic, environmental, political, security, and societal—must be integrated into social protection to enhance resilience among IDPs. Furthermore, a higher degree of decentralised social protection is essential, empowering local authorities to adapt programmes to the specific needs of IDPs while also being relevant to the Special Autonomy Policy (Otsus) in Papua.

As a country with a high risk for various disasters, the government is expected to prepare for the worst. For those with high-risk occupations, such as fishermen, there is much at stake in working and living in a vulnerable coastal region. Aceh has one of the largest coastal areas in Indonesia and a high population of fishermen. Moreover, amidst the current climate and economic uncertainties, there is a possibility of being trapped or falling below the poverty line if not managed correctly. Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) could provide the baseline needed to mitigate preparations and implementations needed to prepare for shocks caused by disasters. Not only does ASP provide the framework needed for shock mitigation, but it also prepares resilient community behaviour. The Indonesian government has taken steps to integrate ASP into social protection schemes and expand its range. This article aims to map several points of the AdaptiveSocialProtectionframeworkandtheirrelationshiptotheactionthathasbeencarried out for fishermen in the Aceh region.

The 2018 earthquake in Donggala, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, caused significant damage and displacement, underscoring the need for resilient housing. This study evaluates Indonesia’s Hunian Tetap programme within the Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) framework, which aims to enhance resilience through responsive measures addressing immediate and long-term needs. The programme’s progress in constructing permanent housing is notable, but challenges such as implementation delays and insufficient public participation remain. The research emphasises the critical role of community engagement, prioritising vulnerable groups, and comprehensive planning to better align with ASP principles. Key recommendations include expanding programme coverage, improving targeting methods, and fostering continuous community involvement. By addressing these aspects, the study aims to enhance the long-term resilience of disaster-affected communities, ensuring housing assistance programmes contribute to sustainable development and robust social protection frameworks. This research highlights the necessity for housing solutions that are not only immediate relief measures but also part of a broader strategy to build resilience against future disasters.

The exhilarated pace of climate change will induce disaster that will impact society, where Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) is needed more than ever. To further leverage the potential of adaptive social protection, the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) can transform the execution of disaster mitigation with the innovation developed by independent researchers or the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). To further elaborate on this topic, this Op-Ed explores how artificial intelligence can assist adaptive social protection programmes in reducing the severity of disasters, specifically what role(s) artificial intelligence plays in disaster mitigation. For successful AI implementation, centralising development within one government agency is crucial. This simplifies monitoring and evaluation while maintaining the communities involved in the process. Not only will it acquaint the communities with the programme, but also build trust to build a sustainable programme.